joi, 9 iulie 2009

Despre noua politică externă americană, fără mişto-uri (partea I)



Henry Kissinger are momente când e un actor prost care nu convinge pe nimeni.

Când e vorba să nu i se recunoască meritele de mare geopolitician, Kissinger e orgolios, capricios şi atins de nervoase ieşiri copilăreşti. Aşa e descris în mai toate lucrările memorialistice ale contemporanilor săi. De aceea, următoarea afirmaţie a lui Kissinger din interviul publicat pe, 6 iulie 2009, în Spiegel, trebuie privită cu depline rezerve: "Obama is like a chess player who is playing simultaneous chess and has opened his game with an unusual opening. Now he's got to play his hand as he plays his various counterparts. We haven't gotten beyond the opening game move yet. I have no quarrel with the opening move."

Sunt aproape convins că, de fapt, Kissinger vorbeşte despre sine. Se şi scapă, spunând "we haven't gotten beyond the opening game move yet".

Ajuns la 86 de ani, nu mai are o dificultate în a recunoaşte - chiar şi cu slabe performanţe actoriceşti - falsele merite ale altora, în condiţiile în care devine evident, de la o lună la alta, că noua vestimentaţie a politicii externe americane e influenţată decisiv de el, Obama fiind doar modelul care defilează pe catwalk-urile de la Cairo, Moscova şi, în curând, Beijing.

Din raţiuni de PR, unii vorbesc deja despre o Doctrină Obama, dar dincolo de faţadă se situează experienţa, flerul, ratările, succesele, prudenţa, relaţiile personale şi influenţa mondială purtând inconfundabilul brand Kissinger, toate adunate şi dezvoltate pe parcursul unei perioade de aproape 50 de ani. După cum se vede, interviul conţine multe din ideile regăsibile în speech-urile lui Obama din ultima vreme:
"Any international system must have two key elements for it to work. One, it has to have a certain equilibrium of power that makes overthrowing the system difficult and costly. Secondly, it has to have a sense of legitimacy."

"For me, a sensible definition of realpolitik is to say there are objective circumstances without which foreign policy cannot be conducted. To try to deal with the fate of nations without looking at the circumstances with which they have to deal is escapism. The art of good foreign policy is to understand and to take into consideration the values of a society, to realize them at the outer limit of the possible."

Despre faptul dacă noţiunile de Bine şi Rău au în sens în politica externă, Kissinger spune:

"Yes, but generally in gradations. Rarely in absolutes. I think there are kinds of evil that need to be condemned and destroyed, and one should not apologize for that. But one should not use the existence of evil as an excuse for those who think that they represent good to insist on an unlimited right to impose their definition of their values."

"The important thing after a military victory is to deal with the defeated nation in a generous way. A wise victor will attempt to bring the defeated nation into the international system. A wise negotiator will try to find a basis on which the agreement will want to be maintained. When one reaches a point where neither of these possibilities exist, then one has to go either to increase pressure or to isolation of the adversary or maybe do both."

"I believe that Obama has a unique chance to conduct a peaceful American foreign policy. I do not see any conflicts between suchmajor countries, China, Russia, India, and the U.S., which will justify a military solution. Therefore, there is an opportunity for a diplomatic effort. Moreover, the economic crisis does not permit countries to devote a historic percentage of their resources to military conflict. I am structurally more optimistic than a couple of years ago."

Interviul lui Kissinger este la http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,634400,00.html




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