marți, 22 septembrie 2009

Două abordări americane privind Afganistanul - Partea a II-a


Săptămâna trecută evocasem ideile neoconilor despre ţara prietenă şi invadată. Simpliste şi venite de pe altă lume, ca întotdeauna.

Cea de-a doua teorie despre cum să iasă americanii din capcana afgană provine de la Fareed Zakaria care se vrea pragmatic: "The focus must shift from nation building to dealmaking. The central problem in Afghanistan is that the Pashtuns, who make up 45 percent of the country and almost 100 percent of the Taliban, do not feel empowered. We need to start talking to them, whether they are nominally Taliban or not. Buying, renting, or bribing Pashtun tribes should become the centerpiece of America's stabilization strategy, as it was Britain's when it ruled Afghanistan."

"The dealmaking should extend to the top. U.S. officials should stop trashing Karzai. We have no alternative. Afghanistan needs a Pashtun leader; Karzai is a reasonably supportive one. Let's assume the charges of corruption and vote rigging against him are true. Does anyone really think his successor would be any more honest and efficient? The best strategy would be to see if we can get Karzai to work with his leading opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, in some kind of coalition. The muddied elections actually create an opportunity to build a national-unity government.

There are three ways to change security conditions in Afghanistan. First, increase American troops. Second, increase Afghan troops. Third, shrink the number of enemy forces by making them switch sides or lay down their arms. That third strategy is what worked so well in Iraq and urgently needs to be adopted in Afghanistan. A few years from now, we can be sure that Afghanistan will still be poor, corrupt, and dysfunctional. But if we make the right deals, it will be ruled by leaders who keep the country inhospitable to Al Qaeda and terrorist groups like it. That's my definition of success."

Soluţia aparent de ev mediu a lui Fareed (dar gândită în cel mai curat realism marca "Henry Kissinger" din perioada "vietnameză") arată cât de disperată şi lipsită de idei a ajuns unica superputere mondială a sec.21, pentru a ţine sub control o ţară ce tocmai iese din neolitic...

Asta în condiţiile în care, ieri, generalul McChrystal formula ieri o alternativă mai mult decât dramatică către şefii lui de la Washington: ori primeşte întăriri în Afganistan, ori situaţia se duce dracului!

Articolul lui Fareed Zakaria este la http://www.newsweek.com/id/215318

Ştirea despre raportul lui McChrystal se află la http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/21/mcchrystal-afghanistan-as_n_292941.html

Poza este preluată de la http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_9cSQx6NYzrU/SeQYA7kPyTI/AAAAAAAAKvM/5Tc15mlxDwI/s400/Zakaria%2520full%2520body%2520pic.jpg

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