marți, 24 august 2010

Gary Hart despre viitoarea aventură din Iran


Unul dintre nu neapărat numeroşii politicieni-intelectuali ai Partidului Democrat, Gary Hart este, de peste 25 de ani, o mult prea discretă prezenţă în politica americană. Probabil că valoarea opiniilor şi argumentelor pe care le exprimă se hrăneşte tocmai din această detaşare auto-impusă.

Are un blog, http://www.mattersofprinciple.com/, pe care l-am descoperit abia azi şi care se recomandă prin titlu.

Anti-neoconservator prin vocaţie, educaţie şi principii, Hart se opune unei noi excursii militare în Orientul Mijlociu, pe baza a cel puţin următoarelor argumente:

"1. Bombing a sovereign nation is a de facto declaration of war. Our Constitution requires the Congress, not the President, to declare war. Simply because we have launched a number of wars without a Congressional declaration does not mean the Constitutional requirement has been suspended;

2. Such an attack will have economic consequences for us. The Iranians most likely would blockade the Strait of Hormuz, thus reducing the shipment of Persian Gulf oil–almost one-quarter of our imports–and dramatically increasing world oil prices. This would have a powerfully negative affect on our already fragile economy;

3. Such an attack would place great stress on our military. We cannot continue the Afghan war, prop up the neighboring Iraqi government, and create a third battlefield in the Middle East. It is folly to assume that a US-Iran war can be carried out by the Navy and Air Force alone. Our ground combat forces are near exhaustion;

4. Bombing Iran would virtually assure an attack of considerable dimensions carried out against Israel. This would involve both Iranian and Lebanon-based missiles. Israel would necessarily retaliate. We would then have all-out war in the Middle East.
5. An attack on another Muslim (albeit Persian) nation invigorates al Qaeda recruitment. A third war in a Islamic nation confirms their argument that the US hates Muslims. Expect other 9/11’s of some dimensions."

Teme de reflectat, inclusiv pentru numeroşii amatori din România, care, citind puţin, tratează disputa SUA - Iran în termenii prăfuiţi ai perioadei Reagan - Andropov/Cernenko/Gorbaciov.

Şi, bineînţeles, Hart e departe de a fi un naiv: "This is not an argument for “doing nothing”, the standard retort of the eager bombers. We have at least a year, and probably more, to weigh Iran’s nuclear capabilities and intentions, and to rally regional and global opposition to them. Building so-called “off ramps” for Iran on the nuclear highway is currently underway."

O mini-biografie Gary Hart se poate găsi la http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Hart

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