Aparentul bun-simţ al acestui tip analitic ascunde însă capcane. Simplificările cu care operează Zakaria ni-l dezvăluie, până la urmă, ca pe un propagandist isteţ (ca mulţi alţii, de altfel, dar cu un stil propriu) care seduce cu scopul de a te determina să-i preiei ideile, fără o judecată proprie. Şi are succes.
Zilele trecute a scris un eseu în aceeaşi notă de şcoală primară, cu titlul Why the 21st Century will not belong to China. Eu înţeleg perfect că America e deranjată de ascensiunea Chinei, bazată pe cea mai spectaculoasă dinamică de dezvoltare din toată istoria omenirii. O Chină capitalistă, condusă politic comunist, cu tendinţa de a deveni, în scurt timp, prima putere economică mondială, reprezintă o palmă dureroasă pentru învingătoarea Uniunii Sovietice în Războiul Rece. De aceea, pe lângă o serie de admiratori ai vitezei de dezvoltare chineze, apar şi propagandiştii care insistă pe ideea că Beijing-ul pute, iar Washington-ul e Aqua di Gioia, de Armani.
Aşa încât, în loc să se mobilizeze pentru a contracara efectiv neîntruptele salturi înainte ale Chinei, Statele Unite trăiesc plăcerea auto-consolării ideologice, cum că ăia, de fapt, n-o să le depăşească în veci. De parcă totul se reduce la un meci Steaua - Dinamo, în care n-ai voie să "ţii" cu adversarul, evident, mai bun decât tine, fiindcă are tricoul murdar de drepturi ale omului încălcate şi de aceleaşi rebuturi ale capitalismului pe care le-ai înregistrat şi tu (polarizări şi inechităţi sociale, mediu înconjurător făcut praf, corupţie etc.).
"China is not going to be the dominant power of the 21st century for three reasons: economic, political and geo-political", decretează Fareed. OK. Mult succes!
"...there are massive inefficiencies built into the Chinese economic system. They have a huge property bubble. Their growth is highly inefficient. In terms of foreign direct investment, China attracts every month what India takes in every year. Still China only grows two percentage points faster than India.
In other words, if you think about the quality of Chinese growth, it’s not as impressive as it appears. They are undertaking massive investments - huge numbers of airports, eight-lane highways and high-speed rail. But if you look at what you are getting in terms of the return on investment it is not as impressive."
"China is a country ruled by a political system that is in crisis.
It is unclear whether the next succession that China goes through will look anything like this current one. China has not solved the basic problem of what it is going to do when it creates a middle class and how it will respond to the aspirations of those people.
When Taiwan went through a similar process, what you saw was a transition to democracy; when South Korea went through it, you saw a transition to democracy. These were not easy periods. They were fairly bloody and chaotic."
"People like to talk about the rise of Asia. [inclusiv el însuşi, dar uită s-o spună] But there is no such thing as Asia. There’s China; there’s Japan; there’s India. And they don’t much like each other.
You are going to find that as China rises there is going to be a spirited response in India, Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam, South Korea and others. You already have begun to see the stirrings of this. China is not rising in a vacuum. It is rising on a continent in which there are many, many competitors."
"So don’t believe that the Chinese are these strategic masterminds and we are bumbling. We have managed to bumble our way to a rather advanced position despite the challenges from the Kaiser’s Germany, from the Soviet Union and from Nazi Germany.
In fact, I think what you will find is that the United States and North America are creating an extraordinary model in this new world.
We are becoming the first universal nation, a country that draws people from all parts of the world - people of all colors, creeds and religions and finds a way to harness their talent and build a kind of universal dream. It happens over here and it draws together people from all over the world.
Don’t lose faith in free and open societies."
Vai de zilele voastre...
Fareed şi-a publicat eseul şi pe Facebook, iar cineva, un oarecare Renato R. Lacerda, a comentat în următoarea manieră: "I'm a big Fareed's fan but this analysis was too simplistic and quite unimaginative. To say that things can not ever happen because it never did before is history is quite stupid. Also, it is true that the USSR experiment failed. But to say in the face of all the current economics facts that the USA free market experience is a guaranteed success is not a very smart thing to say. We as a planet are still to find a political/economical model that is stable in the long term. Usually Fareed is very good in pointing this but somehow on this analysis this major point was completely ignored. A weird american ufanism was the culprit."
Nu toată lumea e proastă. Din fericire.